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 Darren Wraith
Faculty of Science, Mathematical Sciences Cluster
Thesis Title: Bayesian Multivariate Risk Assessment in Environmental Health
Current Thesis Abstract: My research aims to develop and apply Bayesian mixture modelling to identify and assess risk factors in environmental health. The first stage of my research focussed on the assessment of interaction between exposure to asbestos and smoking on the risk of lung cancer. In the second stage, we examined the applicability of a Bayesian mixture model to assess the risk of Ross River virus in Queensland, both spatially and temporally, and with applicability to disease modelling in general. In the final stage, we are developing and applying methodology to estimate aerosol particle size distributions (air pollution), in either an urban or rural environment. The aim of this research is to characterise the behaviour of the concentration of atmospheric particles of different sizes over time, in order to better understand their potential sources and possible association with health outcomes.
Publications:
Wraith D., Alston C., Mengersen K., Hussein T. Bayesian mixture model estimation of aerosol particle size distributions. (Submitted to Journal of Aerosol Science). August 2006.
Mejía J.F., Wraith D., Mengersen K. and Morawska, L. Trends in size classified particle number concentration in subtropical Brisbane, Australia, based on a 5 year study. Atmospheric Environment, In Press, Corrected Proof, Available online 22 November 2006.
Wraith D. & Mengersen K. Assessing the combined effect of asbestos exposure and smoking on lung cancer: A Bayesian approach. Statistics in Medicine, In Press, Available online 11 July 2006.
Wraith D. & Mengersen K. A Bayesian approach to assess interaction between known risk factors: the risk of lung cancer from exposure to asbestos and smoking. Statistical Methods in Medical Research. (Accepted 12 August 2006)
Wraith D., Mengersen K., Low Choy S., Tong S. Spatial and Temporal Modelling of Ross River virus in Queensland. In Zerger, A. and Argent, R.M. (eds) MODSIM 2005 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2005.
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