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Statistical Methods for Assessing Reliability and Uncertainty in Rare Event Scenarios in BiosecurityPhD 2008 - 2012 
Faculty Institute for Sustainable Resources/Faculty of Science and Technology Supervisor/s Prof Kerrie Mengersen, Dr Peter Whittle Thesis Abstract lnformation about arrival, spread and impact of plant pests, and consequent threat mitigation activities, can be obtained from diverse sources. Challenges exist in integrating these different sources of information, however, its use in quantitative risk assessment can strongly enhance prediction and prioritisation at many levels of biosecurity. Examples include prediction of risk of entry of pests; description of pest spread; and impact on risk of changes in environment (including climate), urbanisation, land use and global factors.
The problems of elicitation, synthesis of multiple priors, and development of meaningful networks and decision trees, can be richly informed by taking a multi-disciplinary approach. The project outcomes will include:
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