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Risk and uncertainty in climate change policy
The United Nations Convention on Climate Change gave rise to an extraordinary level of international scientific cooperation in the field of climate change. Over the past 20 years, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has published four assessment reports on the influence on climate change of greenhouse gasses emitted by human activity. The IPCC assessments form a major input on the science of climate change to decision-makers in the global economy – conceived here as government and business.
The assessments have concluded that the increase in these greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere since the pre-industrial era has caused climate changes that cannot otherwise be explained by natural processes.
The future global impact of these changes to settled human society in terms of rising sea level, increasing temperatures and changes to rainfall and climate patterns are predicted to be severe. From a conventional Risk Management perspective this combination of probability and consequence equates to a high risk.
Despite the widespread acceptance of the scientific conclusions, the practical global response to climate change has not reflected the implied high level of risk. This is particularly evident in the development and implementation of energy policies, and the lack of urgency on the part of government and business in adapting to a low-emissions future.
This research project investigates the technical basis of risk embodied in the range of climatic outcomes presented by the IPCC and will develop a systematic approach to describe and assess climate risk in government policy and business applications. The use of this Risk Management approach will be evaluated by applying it to decision-making in the Australian energy sector.
Information contact: Rob Crook
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